A Mid Year Economic Review

If you are just following the news you may be seeing some conflicting reports about the state of the economy. However, I am sure that most would agree the vast majority of news is bad.  Well, here at Bay Area Mastermind we focus on real economic data that is coming from real time sources. As most people know, by the time the 11:00 news reports the news it is old and rarely relevant.

For the last several months we have been reporting to our members that the economy would be showing an improvement come late May early June. Now we are seeing the hard evidence that backs those assumptions.

Within the last several weeks there has been a significant improvement in key indicators and other measures of economic growth. For example, last week we received the consumer confidence numbers showing that the index has just about returned to the levels it was at last summer.

Last
summer, which was just before panic and paralysis set in and the index
fell off a cliff to levels never before recorded. The big question now
is whether the increasingly widespread expectation that economic
recovery is just around the corner will be fulfilled or dashed. Our
estimation is that what we are seeing in these (and most other) data is
a shift from “doomsday” predictions and things leveling off.

Looking at other data we came upon, on
June 3rd the toll brothers the largest builder of luxury homes in the
US posted lower than expected losses. They also reported that
cancellations appear to be leveling off and deposits are turning
positive. United Airlines just requested a bid on the purchase of 150
new planes. This is interesting in an industry that is having problems
and is directly affected by the economy.

Finally as we post this article, the Weekly Leading Index began to increase its
upward climb and it appears that the index should continue to move
upwards as other indexes are showing supporting evidence.

Remember that at our meetings and throughout the month we provide our members with economic information they can use in their business today.

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